Economic Growth Has Dropped To Prevent Overheating.

In August 11th, the National Bureau of statistics released the main economic data in July, in which the consumer price index reached a new high of 3.3%, while some other economic indicators dropped.

In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Lai Yun said that the CPI rise in July was mainly affected by the two factors of the tail factor and the new price increase factor.

The main cause of CPI rise is the tail factor.

Data show that the consumer price index rose in July, an increase of 3.3% over the previous year, rising by 0.4%.

Sheng Yun analysis shows that there are two main reasons for the CPI rise in July: one is the influence of the tail factor.

Of the 3.3 percentage points increase in July, 2.2 percentage points were formed by the tail factor.

Another 1.1 percentage points are caused by new price increases.

75% of the new price increase is due to rising food prices.

In July, due to the changeable weather and serious floods, the prices of vegetables, grains, eggs, pork and other products increased greatly, and the prices of fresh vegetables, grain and poultry increased by 22.3%, 11.8% and 4.1% respectively.

As for the trend of late prices, Sheng Lai Yun said that the current price increase has some uncertainties, which not only promote the upward trend of prices, but also restrain the continuous rise of prices.

The upward factors are mainly reflected in two aspects. First, there is some uncertainty in the price of agricultural products. Especially with the reduction of international wheat grain production, the rise of international grain prices will produce certain effects on the domestic market.

There are many factors that affect prices.

He believes that there are many factors that affect the downward trend of prices. There are three main aspects: first, the appropriate callback of China's economy.

Two, the state attaches great importance to the management of inflation expectations. Bank credit M2 continued to slow down in July, an increase of 17.6%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month.

The three is the drop in the price of the production sector, the decline of the growth rate. The index of the ex factory price index of industrial products dropped by 1.6 percentage points in July compared with that in June, and the fuel supply category dropped 2.3 percentage points.

In addition, after August, prices were weakened by the influence of the tail factor. In June and July, the influence of the tail factor was 2.2%, and August will fall to 1.7%.

Finally, from the point of view of grain supply and demand, grain production in the first 6 years has been bumper harvests, although this summer grain production has been slightly reduced, it is still a bumper harvest year. The total supply and demand of grain is still balanced.

Combined with these effects, the overall judgment given by Sheng Yun is that the upward impact of price restraining may be greater than the effect of driving up prices, and prices will remain basically the same throughout the year.

Major economic indicators have dropped slightly.

In July, some economic indicators showed a slowdown. Is there any sign of callback in China's economy?

In this regard, Sheng Lai Yun believes that although the main economic indicators in July have dropped, but the rate of decline is not large. The industrial added value dropped 0.3 percentage points in July than in June. In 1 July, the fixed assets investment in cities dropped 0.6 percentage points in the first half of the year, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods in July dropped 0.4 percentage points compared with that in June.

{page_break} believes that the fall of the current economic indicators is mainly due to the initiative of the state.

For example, the industry dropped 0.3 percentage points, of which 70% was caused by the fall in heavy industry, and the heavy industry dropped mainly because the country increased the regulation of energy conservation and emission reduction since the two quarter, and increased the backward production capacity, which has a downward impact on industry.

In addition, the state strictly controls new projects, which has led to a fall in fixed asset investment.

Sheng Lai Yun further said that China's current economic growth momentum is still strong.

China is now in the stage of accelerating industrialization and urbanization. Investment demand and consumption demand are very strong and space is very large.

From a policy point of view, the investment of 4 trillion yuan last year laid a solid foundation for this year's economic growth.

Investment endogenous growth momentum has also been enhanced.

Private investment has increased by more than 5 months in fixed investment.

From 1 to July, the growth rate of private investment was 31.9%, 7 percentage points higher than fixed assets investment in cities and towns, and private investment accounted for 52% of the fixed assets investment in cities and towns, which was 2.7 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

In addition, the country has some follow-up investment plans, such as the western development and the regional economic development plan this year.