Central Storage Cotton Information Center: The Basic Level Does Not Support The Continuous Increase Of Cotton Prices

Central reserve

Since 2010, cotton production has resumed at home and abroad, and the annual gap between production and demand has narrowed.

It is estimated that if there is no obvious adverse weather and large-scale natural disasters in the late stage, the current favorable factors will gradually weaken as the scale of new cotton is listed, and the market will also be returned to the fundamentals of supply and demand from the recent hype over the cotton market, which is not necessarily a guideline for cotton prices.

First, the output of new cotton is reduced, but the decline still needs to be observed.

From the current situation, the recent adverse weather and disasters have adverse effects on cotton growth, but the degree of impact needs to be observed.

It is understood that since September 10th, the rainy weather in the the Yellow River basin has basically ended. The weather in the Yangtze River Valley is relatively normal, and the actual cold air in the northwest of China is limited. The cotton output per unit in Xinjiang is expected to be higher than that of last year.

According to the monthly report of the US Department of agriculture in September, in 2010, the world's cotton output was 25 million 460 thousand tons, the ratio increased by 23 thousand tons, the gap between production and demand decreased by 97 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption at the end of the year decreased by 0.03 percentage points.

The output of cotton in Pakistan is only 44 thousand to 2 million 25 thousand tons lower than that in August, and it is still necessary to observe whether it will continue to lower in the later stage.

From the current growth situation of cotton at home and abroad, if there is no negative weather and natural disasters in the late stage, there will be no fundamental change in the global cotton production and demand pattern in 2010.

Secondly, the characteristics of market volatility in the new year will be subject to fundamentals.

Cotton price operation in the new year will have strong volatility characteristics.

If there is no large-scale adverse weather and natural disasters in the late stage, the international cotton supply and demand pattern is difficult to change fundamentally.

From the trend of ICE cotton price in recent decades, we can see that the ICE cotton price has risen to near the upper track of the historical operation interval. The upward breakthrough has greater difficulty, and the later callback pressure will gradually increase.

Finally, the volume of new cotton scale increased gradually.

It is understood that at present, the domestic cotton picking has been launched in a large scale, and the acquisition companies have started to scale up. It is expected to start a small listing after mid September. The new cotton market will be gradually enlarged in late September. The domestic market will change the current situation of relying mainly on reserve cotton to meet the market demand, and the tight supply situation will also be eased.

The recent rise in cotton prices is suspected of being ahead of the market.

With the gradual listing of new cotton, the pressure on cotton prices will gradually increase.

At the beginning of the new year, the international cotton price starts with the historical peak value. The domestic cotton price starts from the historical high level, and the sustainability of the rising market is worth considering.

For the cotton companies concerned, how to control the acquisition cost and reduce operational risks at the operational level will be a practical and challenging topic this year.