PTA Is Not Taller But Higher.

PTA

The driving force of price is mainly from the lower reaches, and the PTA increase is greater than that of crude oil or related chemical products.

On the one hand, the price of crude oil is still between 85 and 90 dollars, which is only 20% higher than the low of last May, while the PTA rose by 70% during the same period. The influence of oil price on PTA price is very limited. If the oil price is calculated completely, the current price of oil can only support about 8800 PTA price.

On the other hand, the growth of plastics belonging to chemical products is also small, and the normal price spreads around PTA3000 point are all flattened. Both are Petrochemical downstream products, but downstream industry chain is different. Plastic corresponds to packaging film and agricultural film market, while PTA corresponds to textile raw material market, and the difference between them will only be caused by downstream changes.

cotton

The direct substitution of Dacron products is directly driven by cotton prices, especially polyester and short products blended with cotton.

At present, Zheng cotton has returned to 33000. If the normal price ratio of 2 to 2.5 is calculated, the reasonable price of PTA should be between 13000 and 16000, that is to say, the current price of PTA is not over estimated relative to cotton price.

Since PTA is strongly dependent on cotton prices, the price analysis of PTA should be based on cotton price analysis.

After the Spring Festival, the textile market will enter the traditional peak season, and the amount of cotton used by textile enterprises will increase. In the short term, the demand for yarn in textile mills is generally relatively good, and the cotton purchase price ahead of time will be strong before the full start of the cloth enterprises. The cotton price rising trend is difficult to change this month.

Whether the price of cotton can continue to rise in the middle term depends on whether the yarn price can be effectively pmitted. This depends on the order quantity and yarn procurement progress of the downstream garment factories. From the operation of the textile industry under the high cotton price in the second half of last year, we are optimistic about the demand for textile in spring.

Polyester and short

PTA price pmission chain, PTA and cotton prices have exceeded the November high point prices, of which PTA rose the largest, followed by cotton, polyester and short prices rose the smallest, the price increase at the two ends of the price chain is obviously higher than the middle polyester and short, this situation is mainly due to cotton and PTA have futures varieties, the early increase is mainly optimistic expectations for the future.

Polyester short because of lack of liquidity, compared to the increase is not enough.

We believe that the price of polyester and polyester can be revised at any time, the height will be over 16000, and the price increase or decrease in late stage is higher than that of raw material PTA.

Short fiber prices will provide direct impetus to PTA. On the contrary, if the price of polyester products can not rise, PTA will face a major test.