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The Reason For Us Cotton Rise Is More Than That Of Zheng Cotton.

2012/3/6 9:57:00 20

Since the beginning of this year, China has imported 810 thousand tons of India cotton, accounting for 40% of the total import volume, an increase of three percentage points over the same period last year.

Imported cotton from India

Spin

The company said most of the contracted cotton had been pported to the country, and the remaining amount was relatively small.

It is reported that at present, the number of registered cotton exports in India is about 1 million 700 thousand tons, with more than 1 million 400 thousand tons of freight and about 85% of the total shipment volume.

We believe that the India ban will reduce the market supply of 300 thousand tons of the market, but it will not trigger the US Department of agriculture to adjust the volume of Global trade.

Considering that some textile mills that purchase India cotton may turn their orders to the southern hemisphere (Brazil, Australia), while the US cotton pre sale has also been completed without more potential signing resources. The rise in cotton futures in the US ICE market is more justification than the rise in cotton prices in China.

We expect us cotton to hit a range of over 95 cents and maintain a wide range of 85 cents to 102 cents.

From the global and China supply and demand data, the world

cotton

The pattern of oversupply has laid the foundation for the difficult rise of cotton prices, which also makes the 2011/2012 cotton season as a whole with a broad trend of oscillation.

According to the latest report of the US Department of agriculture (USDA) in February, China's cotton output in February is about 7 million 294 thousand tons, an increase of 653 thousand tons over the previous year, an increase of about 9%.

Domestic cotton consumption is not optimistic this year.

consumption

The estimate is only 9 million 580 thousand tons, down 435 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.

To the first quarter of 2012, cotton consumption in China has not been out of the doldrums. Large and medium textile enterprises have been under varying degrees of pressure. The survival of small and medium-sized textile enterprises is worrying.

Inventory growth is the result of increased production and low consumption. It is estimated that in 2011/2012, the end of the national cotton inventory will reach 3 million 931 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio will be 40.95%, much higher than the estimated value of 34.5% in December last year, the highest point in the past three years.

From the data of cotton production and marketing in China, it seems that it can not be self-sufficient, but domestic cotton supply is not limited to self produced cotton. China imports large quantities of cotton every year from the cotton producing countries led by the United States.

American cotton export sales began to expand significantly in the fourth quarter of last year, and sales growth almost came from exports to China. China's massive buying seems to be driven by market demand rather than by government purchases to increase national reserves.

According to estimates by the US Department of agriculture, China's cotton imports in 2011/2012 are expected to increase by 41.9% to 3 million 701 thousand tons over the same period, reaching a record high.

Before the ban on India was issued, the grassroots research of textile enterprises showed: 1 quota.

Price

Higher, but the substitution of foreign cotton is still strong; 2 yarn price has fallen to the beginning of the year, some enterprises may further lower the selling price; 3, the total cotton resources in the market are abundant, and there is no shortage before April; 4, as the blending price is falling synchronously with the cotton price, the large textile mill calculates that domestic consumption will be significantly lower than the 9 million 300 thousand forecast by the US Department of agriculture; 5 most enterprises expect cotton price to rise below the holding cost, and do not plan to expand procurement.

On the whole, through the prediction of the total volume of commercial stocks in the market, the industry generally believes that there is a risk of falling market after the end of the purchase and storage.

Therefore, we expect Zheng cotton short line still has the opportunity to rush, but the medium term upward momentum will not suppress the rebound rate of cotton prices.