"New Three Shares" Pushed By The Change Of Brand Clothing Consumption

The industry has experienced "the withering period after the blooming flowers" and is expected to improve in the fourth quarter.

The industry has experienced sustained and rapid growth in the past few years, and has been significantly reduced by the macroeconomic impact since the fourth quarter of last year.

We believe that the downturn in consumption will continue in the short term, but the base will suddenly decrease in the four quarter, and inventory will be digested in the first three quarters, so it is estimated that there will be industrial investment opportunities in the four quarter.

The change of income distribution is still optimistic about medium and high end brands in the medium and short term.

After our calculation, the hidden income of our residents accounts for more than 45% of the total income level, which is concentrated in the top 20% of the high income group.

We expect that the growth rate of explicit earnings will accelerate in the future, and the growth of hidden income will slow down, so the growth of the middle and low end demand in the future will be faster than the high-end.

However, due to the relatively short supply of high-end brands in China, the high-end market competition in the future will remain in a pattern of strong demand and weak competition.

In the medium and long term, we believe that the brand with cost advantage will better grasp the consumption preference of the incremental market and have a better development prospect.

Changes in consumption patterns - C2C is invading unstoppable, mature online brands are far from being happy.

At present, the C2C mode, which accounts for 80% of the volume of clothing online shopping and has a fast growth, is still unable to see the obvious signs of future growth. Therefore, it is expected that its impact on the clothing brand will continue, and the casual wear industry is the hardest hit area.

Business clothing and high-end brands are relatively vulnerable, and there will be a clearer market competition pattern in the future.

Although the online mature brand touches net has a strong advantage, it is difficult to solve the problem of coordinating pricing on line and offline. We believe that companies with high direct management channels and high management capabilities will be more likely to break through this bottleneck in the future.

Changes in consumption age structure -- formal dress and business

Footwear and home textiles have great revenue and fashion and leisure are negatively affected.

In the next five years, the number of people entering the age of formal dress and business entertainment (25-55 years old) will increase by 3800, accounting for 7% of the total age.

In recent years, the number of marriages has soared. Judging from the change of age structure, the number of marriages in the next five years will continue to increase. The number of divorces and the average family size in China is also rapidly approaching the developed countries such as the United States and Japan. It is estimated that the domestic textile industry will have more vigorous demand in the next five years.

The main consumption age of fashion casual clothing will decrease in the future.

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