Cotton Futures Market Is Likely To Hit A New High In The Short Term

< p > strong > International Spot > /strong > /p >

< p > February 18th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton increased generally compared with that before the festival, while the West African cotton and Australian cotton rose 1.5 cents, while the United States cotton rose 1 cents, and the varieties decreased slightly.

During the festival, China's a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" target= "_blank" > textile < /a > factory away from the market, even if there are few textile mills to start at the moment, it is expected that the market paction will be difficult for some time to come.

Recently, however, many factors have contributed to the market, especially the sharp decline of the US cotton planting area. Analysts believe that the price of cotton will be hard to fall sharply.

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< p > < strong > domestic stock > /strong > /p >

< p > February 18th, domestic cotton (20015195.00,0.98%) quotations were stable, and the national cotton price A index (CNCotton A) representing the 229 grade cotton prices in the mainland was 20110 tons, unchanged from February 7th. The B index (CNCotton B) representing the 328 grade cotton price in the mainland was 19282 tons, up 1 yuan compared with February 7th.

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< p > < strong > domestic futures > /strong > /p >

< p > February 18th, the main force of zhengmian increased rapidly after breaking open, broke through 19800 yuan, maintained oscillation, and finally increased by 60 yuan, failed to stand on the 5 day line, and the market turnover and position were reduced.

Among them, CF1303 contract average price 19620 yuan, fell 25 yuan; CF1305 contract average price 19870 yuan, rises 55 yuan; CF1309 contract average price 19820 yuan, rises 70 yuan, the market total turnover 84688 hands, compared with the previous trading day reduces 21502 hands, accumulative total holds 212414 hands, reduces the 2542 hand.

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< p > < strong > cotton information > /strong > /p >

During the Anhui inaction Festival, the price of cotton by-products rose. After the Spring Festival, the market of Anhui's Wuwei cotton purchasing became more and more deserted. The processing work of 50% of this year's cotton mill has almost come to an end. The finished processing enterprises are expected to end in half a month, the longest not more than 20 days. It is understood that during the festival, some local enterprises still insist on purchasing.

In February 14th, the price of seed cotton reached 4 yuan and 4.36 yuan per kilograms, and the purchase price of seed cotton could not be stored at 3.5-2.8 yuan / Jin.

Cottonseed prices have risen slightly, at 1.25 yuan / Jin, the price of cottonseed whose yield is not up to standard is between 1.1-1.2 yuan / Jin.

Cotton lint prices also rose slightly, and the highest price of the 2 categories of lint has reached 4000 yuan / ton, up 400 yuan / ton compared with a year ago.

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At the end of the Spring Festival holiday in Shaanxi, the purchase price of P is flat. So far, some cotton enterprises in Shaanxi have been taken off. In February 16th, two local 400 enterprises began to purchase, and cotton farmers only had sporadic cotton. The purchase price of local cotton seed was kept at the same level as that before the festival, of which 3 seed cotton was 8 yuan / kg, 4 class 7.80 yuan / kg, 7.60 yuan / kg, 5 7 yuan / kg.

There are about 1500 tons of lint storehouse in the enterprise, and the sales pressure is not great. The selling price of grade 3 lint sale is 19700-19900 yuan / ton, 4 class 19000 yuan / ton, 5 grade 17000-17200 yuan / ton (gross weight, ticket, self raised, cash).

In addition, the price of local cotton by-products is stable, a short pile of 5400 yuan / ton, two short linen 4400 yuan / ton, cashmere 4000 yuan / ton, and wool cotton seed 2400 yuan / ton.

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< p > India: the listing of new cotton has dropped further year by year.

Although the picking time of new cotton in India is later than that of previous years, the gap between the total amount of new cotton and the same period of last year is narrowing.

Data show that as of February 10th this year, India's new cotton has been on the market for 3 million 118 thousand tons, down 3.1% from the same period last year, of which the volume of listing in the north and the south is higher than that in last year, but the central region has dropped significantly.

At present, the India a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > Association (CAI) has increased 8500 tons of cotton production in India this year, up to 6 million 14 thousand tons, which is about 340 thousand tons more than the latest forecast of USDA. Nevertheless, the prediction of CAI also decreased by 5.2% over the same period last year.

From the chart below, we can see that the difference between India's new cotton market and the same period last year has narrowed from the original 30% to the current 3%. If the gap is further narrowed in the next few weeks, India's cotton production is expected to increase from a downward trend, and the organization will also increase the forecast of India cotton output this year.

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< p > January, Brazil cotton export increased significantly, USDA forecast target was low. As of January this year, Brazil cotton cumulative export volume was 762 thousand tons, an increase of 2.9% over the same period last year.

It is worth mentioning that China is still the largest export market for Brazil cotton, and is expected to continue to play a leading role in the future. Besides, Indonesia, Korea and Vietnam also have an upward trend in the purchase of Brazil cotton.

As the four countries are also the main export destinations of the US cotton, there is reason to believe that the market competition between the US cotton and Brazil cotton will become more intense in the future.

According to the current export progress of Brazil cotton, the export target of USDA is not a problem.

In fact, in the latest global cotton production and inventory forecast released in February, USDA will raise Brazil cotton export volume by 44 thousand tons to 1 million 2 thousand tons this year. Even so, the actual export volume of Brazil cotton may also exceed that forecast.

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< p > < strong > market comment < /strong > < /p >

< p > for the market after the Spring Festival, in the short term, the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > cotton price < /a > still has the possibility of hitting the new high, thus creating the opportunity for the cotton enterprises to sell high value.

In recent years, after the Spring Festival, cotton prices are generally high.

Short term domestic demand pays close attention to the 1305 and 1309 contracts. When the cotton price exceeds 20400 yuan / ton, the layout is empty, so that the enterprise can earn an excess profit which is higher than the national reserve price.

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