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RMB Appreciation And High Base Factors Superimposed September Exports Fell 0.3%

2013/10/14 12:35:00 18

despite taking account of the higher base factor in the same period last year, exports in September were below a href= "http://news.sjfzxm.com/news/list.aspx Classid=101112107105" > negative growth < /a > is still lower than expected in the industry, many agencies said "unexpected". A number of experts interviewed by the economic reference Daily said that the pressure of RMB appreciation was obvious during the same period last year. The Mid Autumn Festival factor caused the reduction of working days, which was the three main reason that led to less than expected export performance in September. 
 "affected by factors such as the large base period last year, the growth rate dropped to 3.3% in September." Customs spokesman Zheng Yuesheng said 12. According to customs statistics, China's exports increased by 9.9% in September last year, much higher than the average growth rate of last year. Bai Ming, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, also said that in September last year, some customs fees had been abolished, and a large number of backlog of export energy had been released, leading to a higher base. 
 in addition, Bai Ming believes that the pressure of RMB appreciation has caused great pressure on enterprises, and the real effective exchange rate has risen sharply. At the same time, the currency of emerging market countries, which is the driving force of China's export growth, has depreciated sharply in September. This has imposed a superposition effect on China's real exchange rate and exacerbated the difficulty of export. 
The main reason for China's exports to exceed the expected decline in September is that the political turmoil of the "p a" href= http://news.sjfzxm.com/news/list.aspx Classid=101112107107 "debt ceiling < /a" superimposed on the unfavorable international monetary environment. Chen Hufei, a researcher at Bank of communications Financial Research Center, said that in September, when the political turmoil caused by the debt ceiling increased the risk of uncertainty in the US growth and the repeated adverse disturbance of the Fed's Q E withdrawal, the yuan appreciated the pressure of unilateral appreciation against the US dollar in September, rising 3.04% compared to the same month. 
Liu Ligang, chief economist of Greater China in the New Zealand global banking market, P, also said that the strong renminbi has dragged down the performance of exports. "But it needs to be pointed out that the RMB exchange rate may face a certain risk of weakness in the short term due to the September trade surplus is much lower than expected." 
 besides, the reduction of working days during the Mid Autumn Festival is also an influencing factor. Liu Ligang believes that the export downturn in September was largely affected by Holiday factors. "Compared with last year, this year's Mid Autumn Festival falls in mid September, which may interrupt the normal construction period to a certain extent, thus affecting the performance of trade." 
 however, the experts also said that although the negative export growth occurred in September, it shows that the current recovery of foreign trade is still facing great pressure, but exports in the first three quarters still achieved a 8% growth, which is better than the two quarter. With the arrival of the peak season of traditional consumption in Europe and the United States, the fourth quarter is expected to further improve the external demand. At the same time, it is restrained by the cardinal effect of higher foreign trade growth in the fourth quarter of last year, and it will still be the trend of low stabilization. 
 Zheng Yuesheng said on the 12 day, overall, China's imports and exports showed a low level of stabilization. In the first quarter, China's import and export growth was 13.5% year-on-year, and the two quarter was 4.3%. In the three quarter, China's imports and exports grew to 6% year-on-year. "The macroeconomic stability of China has been improving, and the external economic environment has improved. The positive factors to promote the development of foreign trade have begun to increase. Since July this year, the State Council has promulgated a series of policies and measures to stabilize the growth of foreign trade, and the policy benefits are constantly emerging. 
 the latest research on Customs by the customs also shows that the trend towards good trend in the four quarter will continue. Zheng Yuesheng said that according to the survey data of nearly 2000 enterprises in the end of September, China's export managers index was 37.8 in September this year, up 1.7 compared with August, which is second straight months in a row. Among them, the rise of new orders, enterprise information and business cost index indicates that China's exports will stabilize. The survey data also showed that the proportion of enterprises reflecting new orders and the year-on-year decrease in the total export cost decreased compared with the previous month, and the enterprises which were not optimistic about the export situation in the next 2 to 3 months were also less than last month. "From the survey of enterprises, it is estimated that in the next two or three months, China's exports should still be a steady development trend." 
 the Ministry of Commerce has also said in the near future that the import and export of the country is expected to further stabilize and recover in the next few months. It is confident that further efforts will be made to achieve the expected goal of the growth of foreign trade import and export throughout the year. 
 Chen Hufei predicts that in late October, the us a href= "http://news.sjfzxm.com/news/list.aspx Classid=101112107108" > short-term debt dispute "/a" will gradually weaken the impact on China's foreign trade growth. In addition, the traditional export market in Europe and the United States will enter the traditional consumption and production and operation season in October, and the order is expected to rise significantly. However, considering the impact of higher export growth in the fourth quarter of last year, the high base will restrict the rebound height of export growth in the future.