Liu Shijin Talks About The New Normal Of China'S Economic Growth

< p > the deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com "> Liu Shijin < /a > 22, in an exclusive interview with reporters at the" China Development Summit Forum 2014 ", said that the current Chinese economy has seen some positive changes in the medium to long-term sense. Through in-depth reform, it is expected that in the next two years, the growth stage will be pformed into a new stable growth track or state.

If successful, the growth rate of China's economy will be around 7%, or between 6% and 7% for a longer period, such as 5 years or longer.

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< p > < strong > China's economic growth pformation shows positive changes < /strong > < /p >

P > 2013, China's economy is running smoothly, but there are also many fluctuations.

The economic growth rate in the middle of this year has been down. By clearing the reasonable speed of economic growth and adopting policies and measures to stabilize investment, growth has stabilized, and the annual economic growth rate has reached 7.7%.

In the context of the international financial crisis and the pformation of the domestic economy at the stage of growth, it is not easy to achieve such growth.

What is more noteworthy is that China's economy is already experiencing some positive changes in the medium to long term.

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< p > first, adapting to the slowdown in growth rate, China's economic structure has changed or is undergoing a turning point.

China's economy is usually regarded as an investment oriented, industrial oriented, and more dependent on external demand economic structure. Changing this structure is considered to be the main task of structural adjustment.

In 2012, the share of consumption in gross domestic product (G D P) began to exceed investment. Although there was a relapse in 2013, the big change trend has already appeared. In 2013, the proportion of the third industry exceeded the second industry for the first time.

Over the past few years, China's export growth has always been above 20%, and has now fallen to the 5% to 10% growth range. This adjustment can no longer be attributed to the change in external demand, but more explained by changes in export competitiveness as the exchange rate and domestic factor costs rise.

In line with the above adjustment of economic structure, the growth rate of labor and land input is slowing down.

In this way, we can see that the structure of economic growth which is quite different from the past 30 years has begun to emerge: gradually turning to consumption and service industries, relying more on domestic demand, and gaining more momentum from the promotion of factor efficiency.

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< p > Second, the eastern coastal areas that took the lead in coming down gradually adapted to the new environment, showing a steady growth trend.

The process of structural adjustment and pformation and upgrading of enterprises has accelerated. Some inefficient enterprises have been eliminated by the market, and the losses of enterprises have declined. Most of the enterprises have gradually stabilized their operating conditions and improved the quality and efficiency of economic operation.

The economic operation of the eastern region should be stable in the low growth range, and the significance should not be underestimated.

On the one hand, the economic scale of the eastern coastal areas has taken the lead in the whole country. These areas have been stable, and the overall economic situation of China has basically stabilized.

On the other hand, the growth of the eastern coastal areas is stable, perhaps indicating that the growth of the central and western regions will gradually stabilize after a certain period.

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< p > Third, in the process of economic growth callback, employment is generally stable, and there is no large-scale unemployment problem.

Fourth, the level of corporate profitability has enhanced adaptability to slower growth.

Fifth, all sectors of the society have increased the consensus on the pformation of growth stage, holding a more rational and realistic expectation for future economic growth.

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< p > from a macro level, an important change is the innovation of macro regulation and control.

In the middle of 2013, there was a pressure of increasing growth in the middle of the year. The macro policy makers did not simply introduce monetary and fiscal stimulus measures. Instead, they adopted a comprehensive strategy of stabilizing expectations, grasping reform and promoting pformation.

From the perspective of pformation of growth mode and pformation of development mode, it is very meaningful to have the following two aspects.

First, actively manage expectations.

Two, we need to achieve new growth momentum through restructuring and promoting pformation.

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< p > < strong > can be expected to strive for a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > economy < /a > growth new normal < /strong > /p >

< p > the next question is how long the current growth trend can last.

Judging from the big background, China's economy is still in a period of pition from high growth to medium and high speed growth.

The "where is the bottom" of this high-speed growth has not yet been proved, or the equilibrium point of high speed growth has not yet been found.

From the international experience, when Japan and Korea fell from the high-speed growth period, the growth rate dropped by nearly 50%.

China is a big country with unbalanced economic development, and the equilibrium point may be higher after the period of rapid growth, such as around 7%, or between 6% and 7%.

For a recent period of growth rebound, our judgement is still a relatively weak short-term rebound caused by inventory adjustment and expected improvement, not necessarily stable, and may also have a bottom finding process.

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"P" at the same time, the eye should be far away, and strive to achieve the pformation of the growth stage in the next two years and to enter a new stable growth track or state.

This can give a concept, such as "the new normal of economic growth", or "medium and high speed stable growth period".

The implication is that the "bottom" of China's rapid growth has been proved.

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The new normal pattern of economic growth should have some characteristics, including the gradual growth of the growth rate from about 10%, and stabilizing at the new equilibrium point, for example, around 7%; the economic structure presents a turning point; the growth of the economy will be driven by consumption, services and domestic demand; the acceleration of industrial upgrading and innovation will be accelerated; the sustainability of the resources and environment will be slowed down, and the sustainability of the growth will be enhanced; the increase of labor productivity can effectively reduce the impact of rising factor costs; economic growth can provide relatively abundant jobs; industrial adjustment and human capital structure basically adapt; risks in financial, financial and industrial fields can be effectively controlled and gradually resolved; enterprises can achieve stable profits in general; enterprises can achieve stable profits in general; the government's fiscal and household income keeps steady growth, and the middle income groups steadily expand. < p > such a

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< p > to this new growth normal, we can further put forward the goal of "six can": enterprises can be profitable, financial revenue can be increased, employment can be full, risk can be controlled, people's livelihood can be improved, and resources and environment can be sustainable.

It is not easy to achieve these six points. Here, I want to emphasize that "enterprises can be profitable".

It seems that this is a common sense problem, but it is often overlooked.

In fact, this is the key, and is the basis of several others.

If the level of profitability of enterprises is significantly reduced, or even a large area of losses, financial revenue will probably decline more sharply, and financial and financial risks will inevitably aggravate. Enterprises will also find it difficult to increase employment through expanding production. Instead, they may reduce jobs, improve people's livelihood, and make resources and environment sustainable.

Therefore, "enterprise profitability" should be regarded as a key indicator for the success of Chinese enterprises and even China's economic pformation.

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< p > < strong > deepening the reform and promoting the new normal growth to < /strong > < /p >

< p > the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, we made a strategic plan for comprehensively deepening the reform.

We should deal with the challenge of the pition stage of the growth stage and strive for a smooth pition to the new normal of economic growth over a long period of time. The most important thing is to put the proposed reform measures into effect.

In order to successfully push forward the next step of reform, we need to put forward and implement the correct reform strategy and arrange the priorities and priorities of reform.

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< p > first, we should pay attention to the relevance determined by the internal logic, highlight the key points, grasp the main contradictions, and pay attention to the related supporting and coordinated promotion.

Second, we must adhere to the bottom line thinking and put the reform process on the basis of overall risk control.

Thirdly, we should attach importance to the growth effect of reform and give priority to reforms that are conducive to steady growth, structural adjustment and pformation.

In accordance with these principles, there are two categories of reforms in the coming period.

One is the reform of tackling key issues, for those who are relatively accurate, the conditions are generally available and the risk can bear the "hard bone" problem, we must concentrate our strength and time to strive for decisive progress.

The other is exploratory reform, which is generally clear about those directions and objectives, but there are still large uncertainties in the reform path and method. We should allow and encourage local and grass-roots pilot projects to give larger space for "optional action".

On the basis of the pilot, we should compare and choose to increase the contents that are of universal significance to national policies.

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< p > considering the challenges facing the growth stage mentioned above, efforts should be made to promote reform in five aspects in the coming period.

First, prevent and control financial risks.

The current financial and financial risks are concentrated in areas such as local financing platforms, real estate, overcapacity industries and so on.

We should correctly handle the relationship between local risks and global risks, and strengthen the restraint and efficiency through reform.

With the effective release of local risks, there is no systemic risk.

We should sort out the local financing platform, set up a clear disciplinary mechanism, try out local bonds in cities where conditions are available, standardize and rebuild the solvency and financing ability of local governments.

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< p > two is to speed up the reform of basic industries by focusing on eliminating administrative monopoly and promoting competition.

The low efficiency of the non trade sector is concentrated on the basic industries.

There should be some symbolic moves in this field.

It should be "small" and "magnified".

Specifically, in the field of basic industries with prominent administrative monopoly, putting one or two big competitors into play can produce effective competition.

For example, the railway reform should take several regional or large projects to build new railway companies, including local investors and private investors. In the oil field, establish an international oil trading center in the Shanghai free trade area, relax and release crude oil and refined oil, open up domestic and foreign markets, allow local refineries to grow bigger and stronger, and open up upstream exploration market, including shale gas exploration < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > market < /a >; in the field of telecommunications, allowing private capital to be the main carrier to form large telecom operators, reduce costs and promote innovation through competition.

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< p > three is to reduce the cost as the focus to promote the pformation of enterprise profit mode.

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< p > four is to focus on the service sector and speed up opening up and opening to the outside world.

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< p > five is to actively promote industrial pformation and upgrading and innovation driven.

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