IMF Is A Sign Of Bubbles In US Stocks.

< p > Beijing time April 10th morning news, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > International Monetary Fund [/a] [micro-blog] released the latest "global financial stability report", saying that global finance is experiencing a shift from liquidity driven market to economic growth to drive the market.

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< p > the report said that if the US stock market continues to stimulate liquidity, it will be overestimated and bubble signs. Whether the US quantitative easing policy can exit smoothly is worth paying close attention to.

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The P report points out that the unprecedented Accommodation Policy and low interest rate are aimed at helping enterprises and family balance sheets repair and promote recovery, but at the same time, there are side effects.

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< p > the report reminds us that the current increase in lending in the US market has not been plated into increased investment in the non-financial sector.

The leverage level of companies is at a high level in the current economic cycle, but the default rate of corporate enterprises is still very low.

Such a balance sheet feature has the characteristics of a downside risk for the company to grow. "

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< p > "the surge in risk appetite has pushed up the prices of the US and European stock markets.

The US stock market's current P / E performance is in line with the long-term average price earnings ratio forecast, but it is divorced from the long-term average of Hiller's price earnings ratio, "the report said." the biggest contribution of US stock returns in 2013 comes from the reduction of equity risk premium. "

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< p > [figure] according to < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > IMF < /a >, the US earnings index of the S & P 500 index will be slightly higher than 15 times, and its current P / E ratio conforms to the long-term average price earnings ratio (href=).

However, according to the long-term average price earnings ratio of Hiller, the market performance has been extended at present.

It is widely believed that the Hiller P / E ratio has been an excellent predictor of long-term stock market performance.

In 2013, the Jones index rose 26.5%, the annual increase of S & P 500 index reached 29.6%, and the total number of NASDAQ [micro-blog] rose 38.3%.

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"P," the report said, "liquidity driven asset price incentives will continue to lead to overvaluation and bubbles."

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< p > global impact, the report says that the green shoots of the US economic recovery have emerged.

However, in this pitional period, the reduction of the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_p.asp" > US < /a > the accommodation of monetary policy may lead to the adjustment of portfolio and the re pricing of risks, which will have a great spillover effect on advanced economies and emerging market economies.

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Less than P, from last May's announcement of the QE exit map, to April this year, the world has already suffered two rounds of last year's end of July and January January.

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< p > the report says that the economic pformation of the United States poses some challenges to financial stability.

The "seeking income" behavior is continuing to expand, and the leverage of the corporate sector is rising. Some credit standards in some parts of the credit market are weakening.

The weakening of market liquidity and the rapid increase of investment instruments which are easily affected by the payment risk will expand the impact of financial and economic shocks.

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< p > but the IMF[micro-blog report still leaves the US smoothly out of QE as the baseline prediction plan, that is, the most likely scenario that may happen.

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Less than P, since January this year, the Federal Reserve has gradually reduced its holdings of institutional mortgage backed bonds and long-term treasury bonds.

According to the baseline forecast, the Fed will start raising interest rates in the second quarter of 2015, and will continue to raise interest rates in the next 3 and a half years.

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< p > besides, global a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > Finance < /a > concern for the developed economies will make more progress in the process of separating from the euro zone into solid integration, and whether Japan can successfully implement the "Abe economic policy" in order to achieve sustained economic growth and stable inflation.

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