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Shen Jianguang: The Rebound Of The Stock Market Is Conducive To Easing The Multiple Contradictions In Economic Operation.

2014/8/3 11:26:00 8

Shen Jianguang The Stock Market Rebound Ease Economic Operation Multiple Contradictions

< a href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_z.asp > < < /a > > there has been a strong surge in Chinese stocks. Since the Hong Kong stock market returned to 20000 points in the middle of last year, the Hang Seng Index has increased by 23%. At the same time, A shares also showed a concussion upward. Since July, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 6.6%. By contrast, European and American stock markets were weak, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.5%, the London financial times 100 index rose 0.9%, the German Frankfurt DAX index dropped 1.82%, and the French Paris CAC40 index fell 1.29%. 
It is easy to see that there is a distinct feature of the rise in the current round of Chinese stock raising, which is mainly driven by overseas funds, which is quite different from the previous overseas investors' view of empty China, and has also counteracted this kind of view with practice, which lacks a basis. P In fact, as I have always stressed, the key factor affecting the stock market in mature markets is nothing more than the fundamentals of economic and corporate profitability. 
 combined with the analysis of the current global economic and policy trends, I believe that this overseas investor's interest in Chinese stocks is the need for global capital allocation. Specifically, this year, the Fed's quantitative easing and exit is on the right track. The possibility of ending QE will be greater during the year, and the rate hike is expected to be ahead of schedule. Judging from the performance of the global stock market, the stock market in Europe and the United States has already risen much earlier thanks to quantitative easing. 
 > a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_z.asp" > /a >, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 26% last year, the London financial times 100 index rose 14.4%, the Paris CAC40 index rose 17.9%, and the Frankfurt DAX index rose 25.48%. In contrast, the stock market of Chinese stocks has been relatively low and undervalued. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 6.7% last year, while the Hang Seng Index rose by only 2.86%, which is weaker than the overall performance of developed countries' capital markets. 
More importantly, this year, the Chinese government adopted a two-way boost of micro stimulus and reform, which stabilized the expectations of economic growth and gained the recognition of global investors. P In terms of growth, the Chinese government has made timely preparations to cope with the current economic downturn. Although the Chinese economy dropped to 7.4% in the first quarter and fell out of the target area of government growth, the author also gave the real data, which is probably worse than that. But in the two quarter, the policy makers launched a series of "micro stimulation" policies, including increasing the spanformation of shanty towns, railway investment, stabilizing foreign trade, and reducing the financing costs of SMEs. Especially in the 5 and June fiscal expenditure accelerated, the introduction of directional reduction and quasi standardization, and so on, changed the situation of earlier policy tightening, stabilized market expectations, and reversed the economic downturn. 
 at the same time, the pace of reform is also accelerating. Previous decision making discussions adopted the top level design plan of fiscal reform and household registration reform, and the recent household registration reform program fell to the ground. Abolishing the nature of the distinction between agricultural household registration and non agricultural household accounts, improving the existing settlement policy of urban population with more than 5 million of the urban population, establishing and improving the integral settlement system, and so on, all made the market anticipation possible. In addition, in the strategic dialogue between China and the United States, China's attitude towards financial reform, especially the acceleration of exchange rate reform, has been clear. The SASAC has started the pilot reform of state-owned enterprises, and the opening of gates by Shanghai and Hong Kong through October is also in line with the requirements of the Third Plenary Session of the third plenary session. Once the reform plan is put into practice, it will be beneficial to release the dividend of reform and increase the confidence of investors. 
 > a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_z.asp" > long drought > /a > good rain. In my view, this round of Chinese stock market rebound is not easy. If we can open up a new round of capital market, it will help to boost the economy and alleviate the multiple contradictions of current China's economic operation. For example, the current situation of Chinese enterprises is facing a sharp rise in leverage. According to the statistics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the proportion of China's non-financial enterprises' liabilities in GDP has risen from 95% to 125% in 2008-2012 years, rising by about 6 percentage points a year, which is much higher than that of the Bank of International Settlements (GDP90%). Forced leverage is clearly not the best option. By making the big equity financing market, capital replenish for enterprises can indirectly reduce the debt leverage ratio of enterprises or be a good remedy for the real economy. 
 in addition, the capital market going out of the doldrums will also help state-owned enterprises reform. It can be seen that the curtain of the reform of state-owned enterprises has begun to open up, and the development of mixed ownership economy and the introduction of private capital are accelerating. But whether the reform can succeed depends on whether the mechanism is spanparent and whether modern corporate governance can be realized in the wave of SOE reform. In my view, vigorously developing the capital market and going up the stock market will create opportunities for the promotion of mixed ownership and improve the speed and efficiency of the mixed ownership. 
 thus, the positive reaction of the capital market is not easy and is also crucial. In the future, if we want to ensure that this trend continues, follow-up efforts can not be ignored. In my opinion, there are the following policy suggestions: 
 first, the policy of "micro stimulation" needs to be maintained in the second half of the year. Although China's economy has stabilised, including the rebound in the semi annual economic data, HSBC's PMI preview hit a 18 month high in July, but from the micro high frequency data, the foundation of the economic rebound is still not solid, the price of industrial products continues to deflate, and the financing cost of enterprises is still high. In addition, fiscal deposits in June are still up to 3 trillion and 660 billion, and the fiscal room is still very large. 
 Second, reform supporting measures to implement. Today, the top-level design of state-owned enterprise reform, financial reform, household registration reform and fiscal and taxation reform has been released. The implementation of future safeguards is the key. In particular, fiscal and taxation reform is the top priority of reform. Recently, the 1 trillion PSL loan from the state bank or the central bank supports the spanformation of shanty towns as an important measure for steady growth. However, directional measures are not a long-term solution to monetary policy. The acceleration of fiscal reform is of great significance to make up for the short board of this part of funds, prevent the money from assuming the function of quasi finance, and guard against macro risks. 
 Third, paying attention to the adjustment of the real estate market in the second half of the year to prevent the hard landing of the real estate market. In my view, the real estate market is closely related to macroeconomic and financial, advocating the collapse of real estate and accelerating the puncturing of the real estate market is wrong. In the second half of the next year, the new situation of the real estate market is complicated. In some cities, it is necessary to cancel the administrative restriction on purchase control, increase the first suite loans for the buyers, and support the small and medium-sized apartment building projects.