Zheng Cotton Prices Hit A Five Year Low Cotton Direct Subsidy Why Profit?

Zheng Mian fell below the fourth barrier

Yesterday, Zheng cotton 1501 contract fell sharply, opened at 14210 yuan / ton, closing at 14905 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day fell 345 yuan / ton, or 2.42%, volume increased significantly, from 202688 hands to 483108 hands, increased 42826 hand to 446524 hands.

On the outside side, the US cotton fell on Friday, opening 66.47 cents in December, closing at 66.57 cents, or 1 cents, or 0.02%.

Since August 4th, the 1501 contract has rebounded since the five year low 14010 yuan Jedi.

However, during the many rounds of the 15000 yuan / ton integer pass,

Gradually losing confidence, in August 14th, the contract dropped to 14980 yuan after the shock, and repeatedly led the decline in domestic commodities for fourth consecutive months.

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures stabilized and the main contract in December increased by 5.89% in August.

suffer

The impact of low prices and the impact of the consumer side's flagging dilemma is not good since the launch of the reserve cotton launched in November 28, 2013. Even though the China Cotton Association lowered its bid price from 18000 yuan / ton to 17250 yuan / ton in April, the turnover rate is still not optimistic.

With the end of the dumping and storage and the new cotton market time node approaching, in late May, the proportion of cotton reserves was basically maintained below 20%, and even the embarrassing situation of individual trading day fell to single digit.

However, huge inventories still frighten many bulls.

The national cotton market monitoring system predicts that the final domestic inventory consumption ratio of cotton in 2014/2015 will be 177.15%, the highest in history.

According to the information of the central storage cotton company, since 2011, about 16400000 tons of cotton have been collected and stored, and the annual average amount of cotton reserves has reached about 8200000 tons.

"Direct subsidy" has been interpreted as empty.

This week, the domestic cotton market will officially enter the 2014/2015 year, and the implementation details of the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy pilot plan for the new year have not yet been released, especially for many.

It is reported that the current hearsay content is more consistent than before, the current national cotton subsidy is expected to have no lower limit in the new year, and there is no policy support below Zheng cotton.

The news from China's cotton information network reflects some of the rules and regulations from the side.

First of all, the Cotton Subsidy of Xinjiang Corps will be based on output. Xinjiang autonomous region will be 60% in accordance with the area and 40% production.

Secondly, the amount of financial subsidies is not set up a clear upper limit, but the total amount of subsidies will be measured according to cotton production.

Thirdly, there are many versions of the rumor price.

But most believe that in order to improve the effectiveness of policies, the Chinese market tends to make the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources. If the market goes on the market, the government will not intervene too early in the market.

The poor cotton price inside and outside and the difficulty in selling cotton by cotton farmers will become the precondition for the government to consider it.

Fourth, the period from September to November will be the seed cotton price during the implementation of target price subsidy.

It is understood that the China Cotton Association and relevant departments have done a good job in price monitoring.

Finally, market rumors say that Xinjiang will authorize the cotton mill. The authorized enterprises can participate in the acquisition of the target price subsidy. Cotton farmers can only get subsidies through the authorization of the cotton ginning plant, and the cotton mill needs to put the cotton in the warehouse.

The market is more concerned that if the cotton mill does not store in the supervised warehouse directly to sell the cotton, it may affect the application of the pportation subsidy. Besides, the state will encourage cotton ginning plants to store cotton in the supervised warehouse in some ways, but at the same time, some measures will be adopted to restrain the behavior of the cotton mill.

On the spot market, the head of the relevant cotton enterprises from Shandong said that at present, the listing from the new cotton market is getting closer and closer.

In contrast to the high cost, poor quality and selling difficulty of national cotton reserves, new cotton is favored by spinning enterprises for its good quality and low price.

Nevertheless, the prudent characteristics of the cotton throwing business have also been pmitted to the market for the acquisition of new cotton.

Before the announcement of cotton target prices, cotton enterprises, cotton ginning mills, textile enterprises and other cotton market subjects generally took a wait-and-see attitude and did not dare to rush to scale.

However, some people said that no matter what mode the direct subsidy rules promulgated in the late stage will adopt, there will be policies and regulations that support each other to improve the direct subsidy policy.

In the "vacuum period" after the end of the dumping, Zheng cotton disk may present a short upward impact kinetic energy, and cotton enterprises can pay close attention to it in order to seize the right time to sell.