Shi Jun: Commodity Fell Continuously And The Euro Adjusted To Low Position

The dollar index continued to consolidate at a high level yesterday. The trend of non US currencies has changed dramatically recently. In August, European currencies fell sharply and commodities remained volatile. In the second week of September, European currencies experienced low volatility after consecutive declines, while commodity currencies weakened across the board. Yesterday, the Australian dollar continued to fall sharply, followed by the New Zealand dollar, and the United States and Canada broke through the daily fluctuation range. The overall volatility of the U.S. stock market is not great, and the three major stock indexes have different trends. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.12% to close at 17049, the Nasdaq Index rose 0.12% to close at 4591.81, and the S&P 500 Index rose 0.09% to close at 1997.45.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi yesterday called on euro zone governments to take strong measures to stimulate investment, and fiscal and monetary policies should go hand in hand. He predicted that the TLTRO project launched in June and the ABS plan launched last week would drive the ECB's balance sheet to increase significantly. However, Draghi believes that the monetary policy of the European Central Bank alone is difficult to promote economic growth, which requires structural reform in the euro area countries, and fiscal policy should be implemented together with monetary policy. Draghi has mentioned this point in his previous speech. This time, he once again proposed that as long as it is likely to point to Germany, he hopes that Germany can follow his ideas and increase public expenditure investment.

There is not much data today. In the evening, the monthly rate of retail sales in August and the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in September are more important data to be concerned about.

　　 Operation suggestions:

AUD/USD

　　 AUD Influenced by the data yesterday, it rose again to around 0.9216, but then fell sharply, closing with a long shadow line, forming a four consecutive negative trend on the daily line. Today, the Aussie dollar still failed to stop falling. The weekly downward resistance of 0.9289 has broken this week, and the strength is strong, so it is unlikely to recover tonight. The resistance test below the Aussie dollar on the monthly line is 0.8990, and the idea of empty order is still maintained in operation. It is necessary to wait for the failure of the retest of 0.9100 to be a more appropriate entry opportunity.

　　 New Zealand dollar To USD

The New Zealand dollar had a relatively small decline yesterday and showed a volatile trend in the morning trading today. Due to the large decline in the previous period, the New Zealand dollar has recently shown signs of weakening in its decline, which is relatively strong among commodity currencies. At present, the New Zealand dollar price is in the middle of the 0.8040 to 0.8400 shock range, and the upward resistance is at 0.8200. If it fails to break through upward, the New Zealand dollar will continue to test the 0.8040 price downward. Once 0.8200 breaks through, it means that the New Zealand dollar will have a trend of adjustment for a period of time. Short term waiting for 0.8200 to short again, stop loss 0.8240.

　　 dollar To Canadian dollar

The US and Canada saw a big increase yesterday, and broke through the integer level of 1.1000. The breakthrough of this price level represents that the daily fluctuation range has been effectively broken. The US and Canada have opened up new upside space, and the upward target will point to the previous high of 1.1280. Within the day, we waited for the US and Canada to fall back by 1.1000 and follow up on multiple orders. The stop loss was below 1.0940. After 1.1070 broke through, we continued to look up to 1.1240.