Downstream PTA Warmer, The Weak Textile Terminal Industry Has Changed Little.

PTA futures contract 1501 narrowed between 5500 yuan / ton to 5650 yuan / ton.

Looking ahead, whether the PTA factory can stop and repair will determine whether the market can rebound.

Lower polyester operation rate increase

From upstream PX to the end of the textile and garment industry, the price sensitivity of PTA industry chain decreased in the process of falling crude oil.

The author investigated several polyester and terminal textile enterprises in East China and Southern China in late September and mid October respectively. The author found that PTA and PX industry declined sharply compared with the same period last year, while polyester and terminal textile and garment industries changed little, similar to those in 2013.

Profit level of terminal textile enterprises

Higher, and raw material inventory has been kept at a low level, products depend on orders; if the enterprise can get out of the differentiation Road, the advantage of this year's material location can still achieve good results.

The head of a large enterprise believes that the polyester link is at the end of the industry adjustment.

After the national day, PTA spot dropped from 6100 yuan / ton collapse to 5650 yuan / ton.

Polyester also fell at the same time, production and marketing downturn, but last week reversed, polyester production and marketing began to volume, last week up to 150%, so far this week is still more than 100%, polyester prices began to stabilize and pick up, polyester starting rate from 71% in September jumped to 76%, of which bottles, polyester and short prices rose greatly.

The improvement of polyester market has increased the rigid demand for PTA, and many polyester enterprises began to buy spot from 5800 yuan / ton.

PTA industry operating rate is still high.

The PTA price dropped from 6300 yuan / ton before the festival to the current 5600 yuan / ton line. The biggest increase in supply is the most direct driving force.

After the 1409 contract, the PTA Factory Alliance basically broke up. Before the National Day holiday, the PTA industry started to increase gradually.

September 5th PTA

The operating rate was 56.4%, rising to 66.1% at the end of September, and 75% in October 17th.

Among them, a large PTA factory because of the new capacity start is not normal, the contracted goods are limited, resulting in a large number of PTA of the enterprise in the spot market to sell, this is the main reason for the decline of PTA spot prices after the festival.

With the stock return to normal level, the spot dumping will also come to an end.

Back to the PTA price itself, whether it was calculated in accordance with the October PX ACP price of 1210 US dollars per ton, or the average PX price of October to US $1140 / ton, PTA and PX have basically been in zero price difference, PTA factory once again returned to the position of March 12th this year.

Since this week, several small PTA factories have been overhauled, but the overall operating rate of PTA has remained at a high level of 73.4%.

If these large PTA factories fail to make a profit in the late stage, the PTA spot is likely to stabilize and pick up.

We believe that this is likely to happen.

If the PTA factory does its own business and intends to knock down other enterprises, it will continue the current trend of oscillation if it does not continue to increase its operating rate.

In short, the downstream polyester links have started to take a good start recently, both in terms of production and sales rates or prices, all exceed expectations. PTA's own operating rate has declined slightly from 76% of the high point, but the absolute value is still higher than the polyester operating rate. At the same time, the high profit of the PX link is maintained. The current production capacity pattern means that PX can hardly bring any support to PTA.

It is precisely because the upstream and downstream conflicts of the industrial chain have contributed to the narrow oscillation of PTA price.

In the late stage, if the PTA factory has a large-scale overhaul situation due to overlarge losses, PTA may rebound slightly, otherwise it will continue to oscillate.